NFL - Christmas Day Preview

The NFL schedule makers have served up a festive treat on Christmas day, with two games to watch on the big day.

This is one of my favourite weeks of the NFL season, as I can have the usual late-night viewing without the spectre of getting up for work in the morning. This year the games are being streamed on Netflix for the first time. The media giant reportedly paid $150m for exclusive rights for these two games in 2024, and at least one Christmas day game for 2025 and 2026. Viewers will be treated to a Mariah Carey pre-game performance in the first game, and the second matchup will feature a half-time show from Beyonce.

Netflix and the NFL will be hoping to avoid the streaming problems experienced in the recent “boxing” showpiece between Jake Paul and Mike Tyson, where an estimated 108m people tuned in and experienced regular buffering during the coverage.

In this week’s preview we will take a briefer look than usual at the two games, and also highlight another big game at the weekend.

Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)

The Chiefs and the Steelers are already assured of their places in the playoffs, so their main focus will be on securing as high a seeding as possible. Kansas City clinched the AFC West title and currently sit as the number 1 seed in the AFC. Rarely has a team with only one loss on their record taken so much criticism, but such are the sky-high expectations of the two-time defending champions. The Chiefs have been the league’s master at narrow victories. The 27-19 win against the Houston Texans in Week 16, meant Kansas City has featured in 16 consecutive one score games, including last year’s Superbowl victory.

The Chiefs went into last week with major concerns about the health of star player, Patrick Mahomes, after suffering a high-ankle sprain in Week 15. Against the Texans, Mahomes showed no ill effects scrambling for 27 yards and a touchdown on their opening drive of the game. Kansas City’s offense put on one of its best performances of the season, aided by the introduction of Maquise “Hollywood” Brown, who was making his first start of the season due to injury. Rookie receiver Xavier Worthy also played a key role in the game and showcased his game changing speed. And veteran wide receiver Deandre Hopkins showed up on key third downs, perhaps taking on the role that Travis Kelce has filled so well for many years.

The performance from the Chiefs offense was all the more impressive given they were up against one of the league’s elite defences in Houston. Mahomes finished with 28-41 passing for 260 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City will need more of the same on Wednesday against another top defence in the Steelers.
Pittsburgh come into this week’s game after a disappointing 34-17 loss to division rivals Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers currently lead the AFC North but the Ravens are hot on their heels. For a second straight game, Pittsburgh's offense committed costly turnovers. The absence of star wideout, George Pickens, was apparent throughout. Pickens has been Wilson’s go to deep target this year and without him the Steelers looked toothless, with the exception of the performance of Calvin Austin. Pickens’ status for this game is still unclear, but his return to the team would be a major boost to Pittsburgh’s chances.

The Steelers’ defence was also unable to stop the run, most notably running-back Derrick Henry, who caused havoc, especially in the first half. They allowed 220 yards on the ground at an average of 5.8yds per carry. The Chiefs will hope to try and exploit this again through running backs Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, the latter having recently returned from injury and offering an explosive threat when at full fitness.

Pittsburgh will be hoping defensive stand out, TJ Watt, can play through his ankle injury and apply some pressure to Mahomes. The loss of corner Joey Porter Jr. means the Steelers are looking very thin in the defensive backfield.

After Kansas City’s impressive showing last week, I expect them to win this one and stay in the driving seat for the number 1 seed ahead of the Buffalo Bills.

Baltimore Ravens (10-5) @ Houston Texans (9-6)

Baltimore were very impressive in their victory of over the Steelers last week, in which they secured their place in the playoffs. Three touchdown passes by Lamar Jackson and 162 rushing yards from Derrick Henry were the key contributors, along with their defence which had two key turnovers, including a pick six from Marlon Humphrey. Jackson is a two-time reigning MVP and is again in the conversation, alongside Josh Allen, for this year’s accolade. He has had another exceptional year with over 3,200 yds passing, 37 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. Factor in his rushing ability and Lamar is operating at the top of his game currently.

The Ravens can also breathe a little easier now, as future hall of fame kicker, Justin Tucker, appears to be coming out of the worst slump of his illustrious career. Tucker has looked untouchable for most of his time in the league, carrying an air of confidence and bravado not usually found in the game’s most specialised position.

However, this season has been a different story with the usually “automatic” Tucker missing routine field goals and extra points. He made all of his kicks last week, including a 51yd field goal, and the Ravens know they will need to rely on the vintage version of Tucker showing up at some point during the playoffs.
Houston have already secured the AFC South division title and the playoff spot that goes along with it. The Texans were viewed as a dark horse for this year’s Superbowl after an exciting debut season in 2023 for both quarterback CJ Stroud and Head Coach, DeMeco Ryans. However, 2024 has been far from straightforward for Houston with poor offensive line play contributing to an underwhelming season for Stroud. The QB ranks in the bottom half for passers in all but one of the key measures. Most concerningly of all is the number of sacks Stroud has taken, and this constant pressure has clearly impacted the young signal caller’s confidence.

Stroud has also had to operate with members of his wide receiver core being unavailable at various stages. Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell have all missed time during the year. Dell unfortunately suffered a horrific looking knee injury during last week’s game against the Chiefs which left Stroud and teammates visibly upset and probably impacted their performance after his departure. It was heartbreaking for Dell, after coming back from a broken leg suffered last season and suffering a gun shot wound in the off season

The Texans defence has been a constant bright spot this season, with the unit taking on the image of their former two-time All-Pro linebacker Head Coach, DeMeco Ryans. Ryans was an exceptional player in his time and the Houston defence plays with a similar intensity.

Linebacker Henry To’oTo’o is an under the radar impact player, and cornerback Derek Stingley has been one the best players at his position this season. Up front, the pass rush from Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson (22.5 sacks combined) has set the tone for not only the defence but the team as a whole.

Despite this game being a road game for the Ravens, I expect them to come out on top, but a lot will depend on how much pressure Houston can put on Lamar Jackson, deciding whether this will be close matchup or not.
Green Bay Packers (10-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (13-2)

And a final couple of lines on the game of the week and the one I can’t wait to see, the Packers at the Vikings. Minnesota are tied with the Detroit Lions in the NFC North and the two face each other in Week 18 for a potential winner takes all decider for the divisional title and number 1 seed in the NFC.

For that mouthwatering regular season finale to manifest, the Vikings will need to see off another NFC North powerhouse in the Packers. Both teams are in red hot form and offer so much on both sides of the ball. I have featured both teams in detail in previous columns (Vikings – week 16 preview and Packers – week 13 and 14 previews) and can’t wait to watch this one unfold on Sunday.

I am picking the Vikings in this one due to home field advantage, but it should be a classic.