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Simon Paul
NFL Correspondent
1:00 AM 18th January 2025
sports

NFL Divisional Round - Preview

American Football
Photo: KeithJJ
Photo: KeithJJ
Last week’s wildcard round didn’t provide the close contests we would expect, as five of the six games were decided by at least 12 points. This week’s Divisional Round matchups promise to be much tighter battles including a clash between two of the league’s best quarterbacks. Three more victories will mean Super Bowl glory for one of these eight teams, and a place in the NFL history books.

Saturday, 18 January

(4) Houston Texans @ (1) Kansas City Chiefs (AFC)

The game to kick off the Divisional Round at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, is a repeat matchup of one of Patrick Mahomes’s early superstar playoff moments. In the same round in 2020, Mahomes and the Chiefs managed to overturn a 24-0 deficit against the Texans and run out 51-31 victors. Mahomes ended the game with five touchdowns, with three of them going to Travis Kelce. The Chiefs are no longer the same team that blow teams away with their offence, but they are still a hard to beat outfit.

Both teams have had relatively underwhelming seasons compared to the preseason expectations. The Chiefs still managed to secure the number 1 seed in the AFC boasting a 15-1 record, but the spluttering performance of their offence and close manner of many of their wins has left many to question whether they can make history with a Super Bowl three-peat. The Texans were many experts pick as a Super Bowl dark horse before the season started on the back of a strong showing in the 2023 season. Like the Chiefs, Houston have struggled to get going on offence, and quarterback C.J. Stroud has regressed from last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year showing, behind a flimsy offensive line.

Kansas City’s starters have benefited from two weeks off having been rested for week 18’s 38-0 loss to the Denver Broncos, and having a bye into the divisional round.
For other teams, the prolonged rest may be seen as a cause for concern in terms of being rusty, but the Chiefs are a different beast. Mahomes has never failed to reach the AFC championship game since becoming a starter. Kansas City are 15-3 in the playoffs with Mahomes calling the shots, and have won three Super Bowls in five years. The Chiefs’ offence has improved in recent weeks and will be hoping to be hitting their peak at the business end of the season once again. Added to that, Head Coach Andy Reid has a 26-16 postseason record (with the Philadelphia Eagles and the Chiefs) and is a master at navigating the playoffs, saving some of his most creative play calling for this time of year.

The Texans reached the divisional round for the second straight year after seeing off the favoured Los Angeles Chargers 32-12 in the wildcard round. The victory was largely attributable to the strength of their defence, and in particular the pass rush from Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Derek Stingley Jr. also starred and came up with two big interceptions. Houston will look to Anderson Jr. and Hunter to cause problems for the makeshift Chiefs offensive line and disrupt Mahomes. The Texans defence has performed well against the league’s top quarterbacks and will aim for a similar outcome this week. When the two teams met in week 16, Kansas City were comfortable winners 27-19.

This matchup still looks like a tall order for the Texans to progress and it is hard to look beyond Kansas City’s pedigree in the playoffs. I see the Chiefs winning this one by two scores.

(6) Washington Commanders @ (3) Detroit Lions (NFC)

Like the Chiefs, Detroit have enjoyed two weeks off thanks to securing the NFC’s number 1 seed in their week 18 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. The Lions were hugely impressive in this 31-9 victory over their divisional rivals. The win was built on a phenomenal display by Detroit’s defence which kept their high scoring opponents in a vice the entire game and frazzled quarterback Sam Darnold to such an extent that the Vikings offense just could not get going. The defensive game plan was masterminded by defensive coordinator, Aaron Glen, who has now thrown his name into the hat amongst the leading contenders for the current Head Coach vacancies around the league.

It should be a fascinating matchup for Glen and his defence against the running threat posed by Commanders’ rookie quarterback, and Offensive Rookie of the Year in waiting, Jayden Daniels. The Lions typically deploy an aggressive man-to-man coverage approach, which leaves their defence vulnerable to quarterback runs. Will they stick to their guns and leave a man to account for Daniels’s legs knowing that none of their defenders is a match for his speed.

Detroit’s offence lent on their running game in week 18 with electric back Jahmyr Gibbs running for 139 yds and three touchdowns, as well as catching one passing touchdown. The Lions also have so many options available in the passing game with Amon-Ra St. Brown a constant threat, Sam LaPorta at tight end, and the speed of Jameson Williams. The men from the Motor City should also be boosted by the return of David Montgomery to share the load in the backfield with Gibbs.

Washington caused a minor upset in beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20 with a walk off field goal in the wildcard round. Daniels performed like a seasoned veteran in driving his team down the field to get in position for the game winning kick.
If the Commanders are to turn over the red-hot favourite Lions in this matchup, they will need to run the ball better than last week and continue to target number one wideout Terry McLaurin. Like the Buccaneers, the Lions have an explosive offense and Washington will need a similar display from their defence in limiting the big plays to stand a chance in this one.

It has been a surprisingly good season for Washington and breaking their playoff duck, with a first playoff win since 2005, being a huge achievement. If the Commanders can limit Detroit’s offense and give Daniels enough opportunities to show his skillset, then there is a chance they can keep the game close. However, Detroit have been too strong for most teams all season and I anticipate they will see off Washington fairly easily in this one.

Photo: Lernestorod
Photo: Lernestorod
Sunday, 19 January

(4) Los Angeles Rams @ (2) Philadelphia Eagles (NFC)

In Sunday’s opening game, the Los Angeles Rams travel to Lincoln Financial Field, to face the Philadelphia Eagles. I mentioned in last week’s preview the need for the Rams’ young defensive line to show up in their game against the Vikings in the wildcard round, and show up they did! The quartet of Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Kobie Turner, and Byron Young dominated Minnesota’s offensive line without the need for any additional help from the blitz. The defensive display laid the foundations for LA’s 27-9 victory, but the young line will face a sterner test going up against an elite Philadelphia offensive line.

The Rams are a team that has the potential to beat any team on their day, and they have plenty of playoff pedigree with Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford being the only Head Coach/Quarterback duo left in the NFC who have won a Super Bowl. The decision from LA to rest Stafford and other star players in week 18 appears to have been a masterstroke. The Rams’ offense was off colour in the last month of the season, but after the time off it put on a strong showing in the last round. Stafford, in particular, looked to have more zip to his passing, and the performances of Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and tight end Tyler Higbee showcased the threat that the Rams possess. Running back Kyren Williams is a dynamic runner and if LA can get him going early, expect them to continue to run the ball to complement the passing game.

Philadelphia’s defence was also the cornerstone of their 22-10 win over the Green Bay Packers in the last round. The Eagles front, including game wrecker Jalen Carter, pressured and harried Green Bay’s QB, Jordan Love, throughout the game and forced three interceptions.

The Eagles’ offense laboured through the majority of the contest, and quarterback Jalen Hurts, returning from a two-week absence due to a concussion, was never really able to get Philly’s offense going. Star wideout AJ Brown only had one catch for 10 yards and gained more attention for reading a self-help book on the sidelines than for his performance. Philadelphia has plenty of other pass catchers that can change a game though, and it was tight end Dallas Goedert who shined with a rampaging run on his way to a touchdown to give the Eagles a 16-3 lead late in the third quarter.

Philly will again rely on the run game and hope Saquon Barkley continues his stunning form. Barkley ran for 119 yards against the Packers, which could have been more including a touchdown, had he not selflessly slid down to help run out the clock.
This one is a tough match-up to call with some lingering doubts about the Eagles offence and the danger the Rams pose, but I’m picking the home team to win by a field goal.

(3) Baltimore Ravens @ (2) Buffalo Bills (AFC)

The divisional round concludes with a heavyweight bout between two of the preseason Super Bowl favourites. The top two players vying for this year’s MVP trophy, quarterbacks Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, will meet on the field for an even more valuable reward, a place in the AFC Championship game. It almost feels too early in the playoffs for these teams to be clashing, but regardless it should be a fascinating watch.

The Bills won 13 games in the regular season behind a balanced offensive attack, and the Ravens won 12 with a late season run. Both teams comfortably saw off their opponents in the previous round, Baltimore beating Pittsburgh 28-14, and Buffalo dispatching of Denver 31-7.

The Ravens offense appears to present the Bills with a defensive conundrum in this matchup. The Bills have a strong preference to play with five or more defensive backs on the field (over 95% of their snaps this season) but will have to find a way to stop or at least slow down the Ravens powerhouse running back, Derrick Henry, if they are to succeed. Will they change their tendencies or play with fire in allowing Henry to run against light boxes.

The teams last met in Week 4, which the Ravens won in a canter 35-10. To emphasise the threat Henry poses, he ran for an 87-yard touchdown on Baltimore’s first snap of the game, and the Ravens ran for an eye watering 271 rushing yards in total for the day. It’s not as if Henry and the Baltimore Ravens have shown any signs of fatigue later in the season, having racked up 299 rushing yards in the victory over the Steelers last week.

One solution for Buffalo will be to try and keep the ball out of Lamar Jackson’s hands for as long as possible and limit the number of possessions they are given. The Bills dominated possession in the last round albeit against an inferior opponent, but the blueprint for success is likely to be the same. The Ravens’ defence will offer the Bills a tough challenge and has improved markedly in recent weeks after redeploying their best defender, Kyle Hamilton, to the deep safety role.

The Bills’ have no elite receivers and operate a committee approach to the passing game. Running back James Cook has continued to improve throughout the year, and as well as being a big play threat in the rushing game, he is also a useful pass catching option. Baltimore is also devoid of household names among its pass catchers, but have a number of capable options including Rashod Bateman, and tight end duo Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely.

This game is the hardest of the week to predict and will likely come down to which one of the two superstar quarterbacks has the ball at the end of the game with a chance to score. I’ll take the Ravens on account of the presence of Derrick Henry and the imperious form of Lamar Jackson, but either way it should be a fantastic end to this week’s action.