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Simon Paul
NFL Correspondent
1:00 AM 12th December 2024
sports

NFL Week 15 - Preview

American Football
Photo: eileenploh
Photo: eileenploh
One of the enduring themes of this NFL season has been the re-emergence of the running game and the importance of having a lead back to ‘pound the rock’.

Several teams around the league brought in some of the league’s top running backs in the off season. Derrick Henry to the Baltimore Ravens, and Saquon Barkley to the Philadelphia Eagles have been the headline moves that have powered each team’s offense this season. These teams have been clever in the way they have utilised their new acquisitions to evolve the way they have attacked opponents.

Barkley has helped the Eagles' run game remain consistent, whilst the passing game has been up and down due to quarterback play and injuries. He has also created explosive plays that have helped the offense more than the Eagles' backs did last season. The Baltimore Ravens added Derrick Henry to a backfield that includes Lamar Jackson, taking advantage of a running quarterback and matching a perfect scheme to utilise Henry’s skill set.

The matchups that I have highlighted this week all feature top end talents in the running game and have playoff implications.

Indianapolis Colts (6-7) @ Denver Broncos (8-5)

The Indianapolis Colts are on the edge of the playoffs, just two wins back of the final Wild Card spot in the AFC, which is occupied by their opponents, the Denver Broncos. There is also a chance the Colts could secure a place in the playoffs by winning the AFC South if they can overturn the Houston Texans two game lead in the division. Denver’s only route to the playoffs is a wild card spot as Kansas City locked up the AFC West title last week.

The Colts are a team in transition, with second year quarterback, Anthony Richardson at the helm. Indianapolis were a perennial AFC heavyweight in the 2000s, when hall of famer Peyton Manning regularly battled with Tom Brady’s Patriots in the playoffs. After Manning’s departure in 2011, Indianapolis had their heir apparent in generational talent, Andrew Luck, and it seemed likely that the Colts would continue to be contenders.

However, injuries to Luck resulted in his retirement from the game in 2019 and so began a cycle of veteran bridge quarterbacks for the Colts while they searched for a new ‘face of the franchise’.
Fast forward to 2023 and enter Anthony Richardson, the fourth overall pick in the NFL Draft. Expectations were high for Richardson on account of his physical gifts, but the pick was seen as a risk by many in the league due to his lack of experience (just 13 college starts in total for the Florida Gators). Richardson showed glimpses of the big arm and running prowess in his rookie season, but his development was curtailed by a concussion and a subsequent shoulder injury that would rule him out for the year.

The young passer started this season with patchy performances and questionable accuracy. In week 8 he voluntarily took himself out of the game for “a breather” and his honesty was rewarded with being benched from the starting line-up the following week.

Richardson returned in week 11 and has since given his supporters and detractors evidence to support their views. He is a raw prospect but there is no question of his threat when running the ball, as epitomised by the game winning drive in week 13 against the New England Patriots. The Colts offense boasts a difference maker at running back in Jonathan Taylor and decent receiving options with Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce.

Indianapolis’s defence has outplayed their offense in recent weeks, ranking top 10 in the league in most key metrics. If the Colts are to make it to the playoffs and to go any further, they will need this defensive improvement to continue and hope that Richardson and the offense can find some consistency.

Broncos Head Coach, Sean Payton, is in his second season with the Broncos after ownership splashed their Walmart cash on giving him a five-year £18m a year contract in 2023. Payton is an elite Super Bowl winning coach (New Orleans Saints 2010) who was brought in to turnaround a franchise that had lost its way in recent years.

His first year ended with an 8-9 record and a parting of the ways with veteran quarterback Russell Wilson.

It was an unhappy marriage between Payton and Wilson that always seemed destined to fail on account of the pair’s substantial egos and conflicting personalities.
The move appears to have benefitted both parties, allowing Payton to reboot the roster, and Wilson to find form at the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Denver’s year of rebuilding started with the drafting of Oregon quarterback, Bo Nix, in the first round. The rookie has had a strong year so far showing off a strong arm, athleticism when scrambling, and mature game management. His connection with veteran wide receiver Courtland Sutton has been impressive and helped lift the offense.

The Broncos’ defence has been the star turn this season, ranking top 10 in the NFL and third for points allowed. Denver has been strong at all three levels of its defence, with cornerback Patrick Surtain II in top form and amongst the favourites to win defensive player of the year. Zach Allen is a menace up front and linebacker Nick Bonito has had a stellar year, leading the team in sacks.

The Broncos defence had a rare off day in week 13’s 42-31 win over the Cleveland Browns, and will be hoping to bounce back this weekend. This matchup comes after both teams enjoyed a bye week in week 14 and the game in the Mile-High City should be close, but I expect Denver to edge it.

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (11-2)

The Eagles started the 2023 season 10-1 but registered a 1-5 record in the last six games of the regular season. A humbling loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild card round led to a lot of soul searching in the notoriously unforgiving Philadelphia sports market. Many expected that Head Coach, Nick Sirianni, might be on his way out, but the organisation stuck with their man whilst making a number of changes to the backroom staff.

Photo: Ralphs_Fotos
Photo: Ralphs_Fotos
In the here and now, the Eagles are again in a strong position late in the season, but there is no hint of a similar meltdown to 2023 occurring this time around.

One of the key reasons behind this optimism is the strength of Philly’s defence under defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio. Fangio is a veteran coach with a famed defensive scheme that has shaped the way that the league has evolved over the last half decade.

His “two-high” (two deep safeties) structure limits the opposing teams explosive plays and forces offenses to remain patient and throw short. It also allows his defence to slow down the run with fewer players committed to the line of scrimmage to free up resources to coverage.
His scheme has been copied by many teams in the league and has forced offenses to evolve to find a counterpunch.

The Eagles have the originator of the scheme calling the shots, and after a slow start, their defence is looking like a top tier unit. Jalen Carter, defensive tackle, is a monstrous presence and constantly disrupts the game. Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith Jr, both linebackers, have had impressive seasons. And in the back end, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean look to have been inspired draft selections.

The other factor that makes a late season collapse look unlikely this time around, is the introduction of Saquon Barkley. Barkley was picked up in free agency after the New York Giants decided against extending his stay with the team. His move to a divisional rival raised eyebrows at the time and looks even worse on the G-Men after Barkley’s stunning form this season. The seventh year running back is having the season of his life behind the Eagles imposing offensive line. Couple that with quarterback Jalen Hurts rushing ability and Philly are a nightmare for opposing defences. Throw in receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and the threats come from all directions. The Eagles made hard work of their 22-16 victory over the Carolina Panthers last week but remain hot on the heels of the Detroit Lions for the coveted number one seed in the playoffs, and the bye week that accompanies it.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the NFL’s most successful franchises with six Super Bowl titles, however, the last of those was in 2008 and this has led to many Steelers’ fans becoming frustrated with Head Coach Mike Tomlin. It seems ridiculous to think that a man who has never had a losing season for the Steelers would be under pressure, but such is the weight of expectation in Pittsburgh. Tomlin’s teams have consistently had elite defences and this year is no different.

Led by four time all pro, TJ Watt, the Steelers defence is nasty! Cam Heyward, defensive tackle, and Nick Herbig, linebacker, have been part of a strong supporting cast alongside leading man, Watt. The return of Alex Highsmith, linebacker, last week is another boost to their pass rush.
The Steelers lead the way in the AFC North and the most notable change from previous years has been the threat posed by their offense. The Steelers brought in two quarterback options in the 2024 off-season with free-agency acquisitions of Justin Fields (Chicago Bears) and the aforementioned Russell Wilson. Fields started the season, due to Wilson nursing an injury, and played to a reasonably high level, leading the team to a 4-2 record. It seemed a big call from Tomlin to move on from Fields, but his decision has been rewarded with a rejuvenated Russell Wilson.

Whilst not playing at the level of his prime Seattle Seahawks years, Wilson has been a very different proposition from the shell of a player that was on show in Denver. Wilson is playing the hits at Pittsburgh, with heavy doses of play action, and hitting the deep ball to the sidelines. These are typically low percentage plays but Wilson is connecting with enough of them to make Pittsburgh’s offense sufficiently explosive to put points on the board. His performance in Week 13 against the Cincinnati Bengals (414yds and 3 touchdowns) was a throwback to his peak.

The Steelers have a competent running game with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren offering a complementary pairing of power and change of pace.
George Pickens is a big target at wide receiver and can provide plenty of yards after the catch. Wilson can also rely on a safety blanket in tight end Pat Freiermuth who has had another solid year. The Steelers battled to victory in their last outing against the Cleveland Browns, which was closer than the 27-14 scoreline suggests.

Both teams lead their respective divisions by two wins, and a victory for either side would put them in the box seat for a divisional title. On the face of it, the Eagles are the stronger team in this match-up, but the Steelers always seem to find a way to make games competitive. I favour Philadelphia in this one, but don’t expect it to be an easy one for the Eagles.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) @ Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)

Tampa Bay travel across the country to face the Chargers in Los Angeles. The Bucs have won the NFC South the past three seasons and this year they were expected to face a stiff challenge from the Atlanta Falcons for the title. The Buccaneers lead the division after week 14’s 28-13 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders.

Tampa has had an injury interrupted season with setbacks to key players impacting the team’s receiving options. In week 7 against the Baltimore Ravens, the Bucs lost both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Godwin was ruled out for the season and Evans only returned in week 12. Tampa has found a way to remain competitive and in contention for the divisional title. The ascendance of Cade Otton as a genuine pass catching option from the tight end position has been a big positive.

An even bigger impact has come in the shape of Mar'Keise "Bucky" Irving at running back. The fourth-round pick in this year’s draft has consistently shown an ability to make the first tackler miss, opening up big plays when a gap appears.
Baker Mayfield, quarterback, a former first overall pick, has had a somewhat nomadic experience in his short NFL career after being traded by the Cleveland Browns to the Carolina Panthers in 2022. A year in LA with the Rams followed before arriving in Tampa in 2023. The landing spot with the Buccaneers couldn’t have worked out much better for Mayfield. After a taking a one-year ‘prove it’ deal, his performances last season earned him a three-year deal worth up to $100m ($50m guaranteed). Mayfield has limitations to his game, including occasionally trying to force passes that simply aren’t there, but his teammates appear to love his ‘all-in’ approach to playing the game. A win for the Bucs in this game would put them in prime position for the divisional title with three games remaining.

I wrote about the resurgence of the Chargers in length in week 14’s preview, and they showed the strengths and weaknesses cited in equal measure in their heartbreaking 17-19 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Justin Herbert showed his maturity with a strong if not flashy performance. However, as good a player as Justin Herbert is, there is a limit to what one player can do when the receiving options are so limited. The absence of rookie receiver Ladd McConkey was keenly felt in the loss and even if McConkey returns for the remaining games, the lack of other targets is a cause for concern. Los Angeles’s running game was very limited and the loss of JK Dobbins before week 13, when he was placed on injured reserve, is a significant issue to the Bolts hopes of making a run in the playoffs.

A positive from last week’s game was that Los Angeles’s defence held the defending champions to 17 points, but this has not been the high-flying Chiefs of years past, so context is important. The Chargers currently occupy the sixth seed in the AFC West and have little room for error if they want to be playing football in mid-January.

I think this will be another close affair, but fancy the Buccaneers to pull off a road win thanks to their greater firepower on offense.