sports
NFL Week 16 - Preview
American Football
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Photo: eileenploh
We enter the dog days of the NFL regular season with a surprisingly clear playoff picture with three game weeks left to play. Seven teams have clinched a spot in the post season.
In the AFC, we have the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Houston Texans. The NFC’s confirmed representatives are the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, and Minnesota Vikings. There are three spots left in the AFC and four in the NFC. However, the AFC looks to be a done deal with the Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers comfortably in the driving seats for wild card berths. It would take an almighty collapse from one of these teams and an unlikely set of other results for this picture to change.
In the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the division, and along with the Green Bay Packers in the North and Washington Commanders in the East, look highly likely to take three of the four available spots. The only real intrigue comes in the NFC West where three of the four teams have the potential to be playing playoff football in mid-January.
Before the season started, the San Francisco 49ers were most people’s favourites to win the NFC West and make a push to return to the Super Bowl after last year’s crushing loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. However, injuries have decimated the niners and have left them on the outside looking in.
This week’s preview features the three other teams of NFC West that are vying for the divisional title or maybe an unlikely wild card spot.
Arizona Cardinals (7-7) @ Carolina Panthers (3-11)
Arizona are third in the NFC West and have the lowest percentage chance of making the playoffs of the teams we feature. The Cardinals have had an inconsistent season, as their record suggests. Arizona snapped a three-game losing streak with a 30-17 win over the New England Patriots in Week 15 and leaned heavily on rampaging running back, James Connor. Connor finished the game with 110yds and 2 touchdowns on just 16 carries, averaging nearly 7 yds per run. Connor is a focal point of the Cardinals offense and when he plays to this level, Arizona look like a dangerous outfit.
![Photo: QuinceCreative]()
Photo: QuinceCreative
Quarterback Kyler Murray produced an efficient, if unspectacular performance to drive his team down the field to complement Connor’s strong game on the ground. Murray was helped by his go to target, tight end, Trey McBride, who pulled in nine targets for 87yds.
Arizona has been in rebuilding mode for the past couple of seasons under head coach, Jonathan Gannon, who joined in 2023 after serving as defensive coordinator on the Philadelphia Eagles team that reached the Super Bowl that year. In his first year, the Cardinals finished 4-13 and as a result held the 4th overall pick in this year’s draft. There was a great deal of speculation leading into the draft around whether Arizona would trade out of the pick to collect more draft capital to help with the team’s rebuild.
In the end, they kept hold of this draft pick and selected ‘generational talent’ Marvin Harrison Jr., of Ohio State, to boost their wide receiver core. Harrison Jr. came with great NFL pedigree as son of Hall of Fame receiver, Marvin Harrison.
It was perceived that Harrison Jr. would hit the ground running and was as sure fire a NFL prospect as there could be. However much like his team, Harrison Jr. has had an indifferent year with some superstar performances punctuated with games where he has been largely a passenger.
The Cardinals look like a work in progress, that are likely a year or two away from being true contenders. Their defence has been better than expected, but still sits in the lower half of the rankings for most key metrics, but they have been stout performers in the red zone. Arizona has some pieces on defence to build around with Budda Baker at safety and good linebackers in Kyzir White, Mack Wilson Sr., and Zaven Collins. If the Cardinals can make the right moves in the off season, this group could continue to grow under Gannon’s leadership.
The men from the desert will need to win their week 16 matchup to have a realistic chance of making the playoffs, with divisional games against the Rams and 49ers to close out the regular season. The game against the Panthers is in the must win category.
The Carolina Panthers have been a complete mess since hedge fund manager, David Tepper, bought the team in 2018. Tepper has cycled through six head coaches in his short tenure and is widely viewed as one of the NFL’s most impulsive owners. The Panthers have failed to register a winning season since Tepper has taken the reigns and this year will end with another losing record. Carolina hired current head coach, Dave Canales, in 2024, from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Canales served as offensive coordinator in Tampa and was lauded for his partnership with Baker Mayfield who had a career renaissance under his watch.
Not a lot was expected of the Panthers after last season’s league worst 2-15 record, and the primary focus for Canales was to work his magic on former first round draft pick, quarterback, Bryce Young. Young had a torrid first year in the NFL and finished the year with the worst passer rating of any quarterback (27.6). Young’s confidence looked shredded and the pre-draft questions around his diminutive stature (by NFL standards) was a constant debate for the NFL talking heads.
Carolina made moves in the off season to bolster Young’s offensive line to provide the young passer with the protection that was sorely missing in 2023. The narrative did not look good when Canales benched Young in week 3, after three interceptions and zero touchdowns in his first two games. Veteran QB Andy Dalton stepped in, but Young’s luck took a turn when Dalton was ruled out in week 8 due to a thumb injury after a car accident. Young looked good in a losing performance against the Broncos and followed this up with wins against the Saints and Giants in consecutive weeks.
Bryce Young appears to have turned the corner and the Panthers are at least looking like a competitive NFL team for the first time in a long while. However, there were some worrying signs of regression in last week’s 30-14 loss to the Dallas Cowboys where he threw two interceptions.
Carolina have a talent poor roster after years of missteps in the draft and in free agency. Young’s reliance on 34-year-old receiver, Adam Thielen, is a case in point. Thielen has had an excellent NFL career but should not be operating as the number one receiver at this stage. Outside of Chuba Hubbard, running back, and Derrick Brown, defensive end (injured for the season in week 1), the Panthers have no star quality.
The Cardinals could not have handpicked an opponent better in this must win game for them.
I expect the Cardinals to run out comfortable winners against the Panthers, but Arizona’s inconsistency does make me doubt their ability to secure the win they need.
![Photo: KeithJJ]()
Photo: KeithJJ
Los Angeles Rams (8-6) @ New York Jets (4-10)
The Rams lead the way in the NFC West and are on a strong run of recent results including last week’s win over the 49ers, and their statement victory over the Buffalo Bills in week 14 in one of the games of the season. The path to the playoffs for Los Angeles is simple, win and they are divisional champions. After the game against the Jets, they play the other two teams in the division with a shot of making it, the aforementioned Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks.
The Rams found a way past the 49ers in week 15 with a dour 12-6 victory in the elements of the Bay Area. It was not a night for the high-octane passing game that was on display against Buffalo the previous week and Los Angeles leaned on their lead running back, Kyren Williams, for 29 carries and 108yds. The return of receiver Puka Nacua has coincided with the Rams uptick in form, and he was the leading target once again.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford has benefitted from Nacua’s return to the line up and has shown that he is still an elite passer with as good an arm as anyone in the league.
Last week’s game also saw an improved performance from the Rams defence who were pulled apart by the Bills the previous week. If Los Angeles is to make a deep run in the playoffs, they will need the likes of Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, and Braden Fiske to continue to provide the pass rush, and for the defensive backfield to hold up. The Rams have the benefit of having an offensive genius at head coach, Sean McVay, as well as having recent experience of winning the big game in 2018. If McVay was able to take this young roster to the NFC Championship game, or one step further, it would surely rank as one of his finest achievements.
The New York Jets were the story of the 2024 off season, with veteran QB, Aaron Rodgers, returning after a season ending Achilles tear in the first game of the 2023 season. Offensive line issues had been addressed through the draft and in free agency, making the playoffs the minimum target for ‘Gang Green’. However, things rarely work out for the Jets and the 2024 season started to unravel pretty quickly. Head Coach, Robert Saleh, was fired and literally escorted off the training facility premises in October with the team sitting at 2-3. General Manager, Joe Douglas was jettisoned a month later with the team then languishing at 3-8.
Rumours were rife that Aaron Rodgers had the ear of owner Woody Johnson and influenced the decision to remove Saleh; a rumour which Rodgers has strenuously denied on his constant extracurricular media appearances, on the Pat McAfee Show. Whether Rodgers has a pseudo-management role at the Jets or not, there is no doubt he has a say in moves made by the team. In October the Jets traded for long time teammate of Rodgers, all-pro wide receiver Davante Adams.
The trade appeared to be a last throw of the dice for New York to try and pick up some wins and a late push for the playoffs. And like most of the moves made by the Jets, it didn’t work!
The Jets and Rodgers in particular, have looked better in the last three weeks with two decent showings in week 13 and 14 losses to the Seahawks and the Dolphins respectively. And last week’s victory over an undermanned Jacksonville Jaguars gave glimpses of the old magical connection between Rodgers and Adams. The latter scored his 100th receiving touchdown of his career in the 32-25 victory. But there is no escaping the fact that New York are a poor team and the much-vaunted defensive unit has regressed from the highs of the 2023 season.
Despite the Jets uptick in form,
I expect the Rams to win this one on the road at MetLife stadium, but hopefully we are treated to a vintage show of passing from two of the league’s best QBs over the last decade.
Minnesota Vikings (12-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-6)
The third of our NFC West challengers, Seattle Seahawks, host the Minnesota Vikings at Lumen Field in the Pacific Northwest. In a division that nobody appears capable of grabbing a hold of, the Seahawks were the latest to drop out of the top spot following a comprehensive pasting by the in-form Green Bay Packers. Seattle simply had no answer to either the Packers running game or the assortment of wide receivers that shared the targets around. The Seahawks defence had appeared to be rounding into shape in recent weeks, but they offered little resistance last week.
Aside from the defensive performance, the primary concern for Seattle heading into this week is the health of their quarterback, Geno Smith. Smith suffered a knee injury following a low hit in the middle of the third quarter of Sunday’s loss and was replaced by Sam Howell for the remainder of the contest. At the time of writing, head coach Mike Macdonald confirmed that tests on the knee were positive and that he was hopeful that Smith would practice later this week.
The fitness of Smith will be pivotal in the Seahawks chances of winning enough games to make the post season.
With Smith behind centre, Seattle has a good offensive unit. Powerful running back Zach Charbonnet has jumped off the screen in recent weeks with his no-nonsense downhill running style racking up yardage and touchdowns (4 in his last 5 games). The Seahawks also have a high-quality trio of receivers with DK Metcalf an imposing physical and deep threat, wily veteran Tyler Lockett always capable of popping up with a big play, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, in his second year in the league, developing into one of the most dependable targets for Smith.
![Photo: Mohamed_hassan]()
Photo: Mohamed_hassan
Regardless of whether Geno Smith plays or not, Seattle will need their defence to return to form if they want to make a big splash in the playoffs. Head Coach, Mike McDonald, got the job thanks to his exceptional work as defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens. It took some time for coach and defence to find their feet, but the last month and a half have seen the Seahawks improve markedly, with the exception of last week’s performance.
Cornerback Devon Witherspoon is a phenomenal athlete and is developing into a future star at the position. Leonard Williams, Boye Mafe, and Derrick Hall have also all had excellent seasons for Seattle.
Minnesota travel to the state of Washington in great form and in second place in the NFC North behind the Detroit Lions on head-to-head record. The Vikings took care of business on Monday night with a workmanlike performance in the 30-12 victory over the hapless Chicago Bears. Minnesota are already assured of a playoff spot but will want to keep the pressure on the Lions for the divisional title, and to try and potentially secure the number 1 seed and the holy grail of the bye.
Vikings Head Coach, Kevin O’Connell, is rightly being touted as a coach of the year candidate; the performances he has managed to get from his quarterback is one of the main reasons why.
Minnesota brought in Sam Darnold in free agency on a 1-year $10m deal in the off season, and at the same time made it very clear that they were in the market for a quarterback in the draft. The Vikings were true to their word and drafted Michigan QB, J.J. McCarthy, at number 10 overall. McCarthy unfortunately suffered a season ending knee injury in preseason which cleared the way for Darnold to lead the team.
Sam Darnold had a terrible start to his NFL career after being drafted third overall by the New York Jets in 2018. As noted earlier, the Jets are a dysfunctional franchise and not one you would want to trust your fledgling pro career with, and so it played out as predictably badly as you could expect. After three lost years in New York, Darnold had pit stops with the Panthers (another bad fit) and the 49ers (as a back-up) before finding his way to Minnesota.
Darnold has thrived under the guidance of O’Connell and his QB friendly scheme. A solid offensive line with elite superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson, and a high-quality tight end in TJ Hockenson, has given Darnold everything he never had at the Jets. His statistics have been impressive this year, throwing for over 3,500 yds, 29 touchdowns, and a passer rating of 103.4. It seems likely that Darnold will move on from the Vikings in free agency at the end of the year, as they look to McCarthy as their future, but Darnold has guaranteed himself a big payday with his performances and that will only increase, the further the Vikings progress in the playoffs.
If Darnold has been the standout talking point of the Vikings season so far, the Minnesota defence is a close second. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores is well known for his complex defensive scheme which challenges opposing offensive coordinators and quarterbacks. Flores’s defence has the league’s highest rates in both blitzes and three-man rushes. He has utilised his defensive backs like Harrison Smith and Josh Metellus to rush the passer more than any other team in the league. His approach has flummoxed many an opposing quarterback this year, and as a result it is expected that Flores will be in high demand when the coaching carousel starts turning again later in the new year. It is not just the scheme that has worked well this year, acquisitions like Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel have performed exceptionally under Flores.
The chances of a Seattle victory in this game are inextricably linked to the fitness of Geno Smith.
If Smith plays, this should be a close game that the Seahawks might nick, but if he is out, I can’t see anything other than a victory for the Vikings.