sports
NFL Week 18 - Preview
American Football
![Photo: WikiImages]()
Photo: WikiImages
The final week of the NFL regular season has arrived and only two playoff spots remain up for grabs; a wild card berth in the AFC, and the NFC South divisional title in the NFC. The NFL expanded the playoffs to include number 7 seeds in each conference by adding 2 wild card playoff games in 2020. The league hoped that the addition of one more team to the playoffs in each conference would lead to more meaningful games at the regular season climax. However, this season it hasn’t quite played out that way.
The NFL model is built on the idea of parity, the concept that any team can beat another on “any given Sunday” and that a team with a losing season can quickly turn this around the following year with the help of the draft. This season there has been a clear gap between the contenders and the also rans. There are nine teams with a record of five wins or less heading into the final games, meaning there has been far fewer teams in contention for playoffs in the last few weeks than we would normally expect.
In this week’s preview we will look at the permutations for the teams vying for the last seats at the playoff table, and the battle to be the number 1 seed in the NFC.
AFC Wild Card Race
In the hunt: Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) @ Denver Broncos (9-7)
The current No. 7 seed, Denver Broncos, have continued to squander their “win-and-in” opportunities over the past two weeks. Losses against the Los Angeles Chargers in week 16 and the Cincinnati Bengals in week 17 have left the Broncos with one last opportunity to make the playoffs. Denver can clinch the final AFC wild-card spot with a win or tie at home against the Chiefs, who are expected to rest their starters in the regular-season finale, having already secured the AFC’s number 1 seed. If Denver were to lose to the Chiefs backups, then wins by either Miami or Cincinnati would eliminate the Broncos. Denver will be heavy favourites against Kansas City’s second string, but the Chiefs will have had more than 10 days to prepare for the game, and with the extra time to build a game plan, Head Coach Andy Reid will have the Chiefs primed to cause an upset and knock out their divisional rivals.
On the bubble: Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals
Miami Dolphins (8-8) @ New York Jets (4-12)
Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
In the event of the Broncos losing, the Dolphins have a significant advantage over Cincinnati in the race for the last playoff spot, because of the Fins' positive record against AFC teams. Miami's one-game edge in conference results would serve as the differentiator in the event of a tie at 9-8 with the Bengals. Cincinnati’s only route to a playoff berth is with a win on Saturday and losses by the Broncos and Dolphins on Sunday.
The Dolphins face the hugely disappointing Jets in New Jersey and will be favourites to come away with a win. However, their chances will be greatly improved if starting QB Tua Tagovailoa is able to suit up on Sunday.
Tagovailoa missed week 17 with a hip injury and should he not make it, backup Tyler ‘Snoop’ Huntley will lead Miami for the second week, following the 20-3 victory against the Cleveland Browns. The Jets have little to play for outside of a personal milestone for veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers looking to throw his 500th touchdown of his storied career.
Cincinnati have won four straight games to keep the door open for an unlikely place in the playoffs. Their run of form has been achieved through the other worldly performances of star quarterback, Joe Burrow. If the Bengals had a better start to the season, Burrow would be firmly in the discussion for league MVP with 4,641 yds (1st in NFL), 42 touchdowns (1st in NFL), and 76.7 QBR (2nd in NFL). “Joe Cool” has made NFL history being the first quarterback to throw for at least 250yds and three touchdowns in seven straight games. He is in the form of his life and the Bengals will be narrow favourites away from home against the faltering Pittsburgh Steelers.
Of the three teams jostling for the last AFC wild card place, the Bengals look the most dangerous proposition to make a real impact in the playoffs, but they will need a lot to fall their way to have that opportunity. Expect a few twists and turns on Sunday if Cincinnati are able to take care of business on Saturday night.
NFC South Division Title
New Orleans Saints (5-11) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
Carolina Panthers (4-12) @ Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
![Photo: KeithJJ]()
Photo: KeithJJ
Tampa Bay find themselves back in the driving seat entering Week 18, needing only a win or tie, or a Falcons loss or tie, to lock up the division. The Atlanta Falcons led the division going into week 17 and had the advantage in the head-to-head record with the Bucs. However, a 30-24 defeat to the Washington Commanders in overtime has left the destination of the divisional title, and playoff spot, in the Buccaneers’ grasp. The Falcons will be kicking themselves for missing the opportunity to set up a “win and in” scenario against the Carolina Panthers, and had Head Coach, Raheem Morris, managed the clock better at the end of regulation Atlanta could have it all in their hands this week.
The route to the title is simple for Tampa; win at home against the Saints and they achieve a fourth successive NFC South division title. The Bucs will be strong favourites in this matchup after putting on an offensive clinic in last week’s 48-14 beat down of the Carolina Panthers. Baker Mayfield was at his swashbuckling best throwing for 359yds and five touchdowns.
However, Tampa Bay have had a bad habit this season of laying an egg immediately after significant victories (Broncos in Week 3, Falcons in Week 5, Ravens in Week 7, and Cowboys in Week 16). If the Buccaneers falter against a Saints team that has looked checked out for weeks it would be a shock result.
Atlanta needs to be ready to take advantage of any slip up by the Bucs, and take care of what is in their control by beating the Panthers. The Panthers have improved from their disastrous start to the 2024 campaign, but the comprehensive loss to the Buccaneers last week illustrates that they are a team ready for the taking. The Falcons have moved on from veteran QB, Kirk Cousins, and installed rookie, Michael Penix as their signal caller. Penix has impressed in spells during his two starts, and the Tampa Bay native will be looking to lead his team to victory in the event the Bucs falter.
NFC North Division Title and Number 1 Seed
Minnesota Vikings (14-2) @ Detroit Lions (14-2)
The battle to be crowned “King of North” has the added prize of the number 1 seed in the NFC North on offer. The holders of the number 1 seed benefit from an extra week of rest as they are parachuted into the Divisional Round of the playoffs, following the Wild Card round. The loser will be the NFC's fifth seed, with a trip to face one of the Rams, Buccaneers or Falcons awaiting them in the Wild Card round.
The Vikings and the Lions boast the same record, but the Lions sit top of the division due to their victory over the Vikings in October. For a regular-season game, the stakes couldn’t be much higher.
Lion’s Head Coach, Dan Campbell, played all of his starters in Monday night’s 40-34 victory over the San Francisco 49ers. It was a move that surprised some as the result of the game would have no impact on the race for the divisional title and number 1 seed, and risked adding to their extensive injury list. Worryingly for Detroit, their injury ravaged defence were carved up by the 49ers, particularly in the secondary, which will be severely tested again by the Vikings stellar offensive unit.
Quarterback Sam Darnold has continued his remarkable form, and the wide receiver trio of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor will be licking their lips at the thought of taking on the under-resourced Lions backfield.
On the flip side, Detroit’s offense is humming at the moment with Jahmyr Gibbs thrust into a lead back role due to the injury to David Montgomery. Speedster Jameson Williams has been gaining a more significant role each week and alongside the elite presence of Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Lions have devastating options at wide receiver.
Minnesota put on one of their most impressive performances of the year in last week’s victory over the Green Bay Packers. The win was much more comfortable than the 27-25 scoreline would suggest, as fifteen of the Packers points came in the fourth quarter. The Vikings defence befuddled Green Bay’s QB, Jordan Love, by consistently deploying man-coverage, which Love has struggled with all season, and the Packers offence struggled to get any kind of foothold in the game as a result.
This matchup fits its billing as game of the season so far, and should be a high scoring affair. It’s hard to pick against the Lions given their consistent form this year, but the Vikings have been every bit as impressive, and I’m picking them to take the win, the division, and number 1 seed.