Business confidence in the North West fell by ten points during September to 49%, but stayed above the UK average, according to the latest Business Barometer from Lloyds.

Companies in the region also reported lower confidence in their own trading outlook month-on-month, down one point at 57%. When taken alongside their optimism in the economy, down 19 points at 41%, this gives a headline confidence reading of 49% (vs. 59% in August 2026).

Despite this, North West businesses who were optimistic about their trading outlook cited improved supply chain conditions (55%) and stronger customer demand (54%) as the key reasons they expect business activity to increase in the next year.

Business confidence in the North West now sits above the 12-month average of 48%, with its highest figure this year of 59% in August.

Looking ahead to the next six months, North West businesses identified their top target areas for growth as evolving their offer with new products or services (52%), entering new markets (36%) and investing in their team through training (35%).

The Business Barometer, which surveys 1,200 businesses monthly and which has been running since 2002, provides early signals about UK economic trends both regionally and nationwide.

Despite a fall in overall confidence levels, it’s encouraging that the North West is still outperforming the UK average.

At the same time, firms’ optimism in their own trading outlook has remained relatively stable, thanks to improved supply chain conditions and stronger customer demand.

The important thing is that businesses have also got clear priorities in mind for the rest of this year, whether that’s introducing new services or upskilling their teams.

As always, we’ll be there to provide the support firms need as they look to carry out these plans in the coming months.

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Overall, UK business confidence fell 12 points to 41% in September, the lowest level since April 2025.

This decline follows August’s reading of 53%, the second highest recorded this year, and buoyant results since May. While confidence remained well above the survey’s long term average of 30%, it was six points below the 12-month average of 47%.

The overall 12-point decline, which was comparable to the fall recorded earlier this year following the start of the Middle East conflict, was driven by a fall in economic optimism, as businesses responded to higher energy prices as a result of renewed tensions in the Middle East.

Businesses’ own trading outlook declined eight points to 50%, compared to a 12-month average of 56%. The majority of businesses (57% down nine points from August) expect an increase in output over the year ahead, while those expecting a decrease in activity reduced by one point to 7%. Among firms expecting weaker activity, the main drivers were economic uncertainty, higher cost pressures and weaker customer demand.

Amanda Murphy, CEO for Lloyds Business and Commercial Banking, said: “While confidence among larger firms remains strong, smaller businesses have seen a fall in sentiment as they continue to navigate higher costs, inflationary pressures and global uncertainty. Overall confidence remains above its long-term average, and most businesses still expect activity to grow over the coming year, underlining the resilience of UK firms. Ensuring smaller firms can share in future growth will be crucial in the months ahead."